Title: Informe Colombia – FMI, Author: Carlos Salazar, Length: 73 pages, Published: A data ROSC took place in and a fiscal ROSC in Su principal objetivo es hacer un diagnóstico sobre la situación local acerca del “ cumplimiento” de los estándares internacionales en materia. INFORME ROSC LINA ARDILA DARSI GUEVAR ¿QUE ES EL INFORME ROSC? 1. MARCO LEGAL: Requisitos jurídicos y legales del país.
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In the context of the Article IV consultation with Colombia, the following documents have been released and are included in this package: Based on information available at the time of these discussions, the staff report was completed on May 2, The documents listed below have been or will be separately released.
Selected Issues The publication policy for staff reports and other documents allows for the deletion of marketsensitive information. Last year, real GDP grew by 4. The country has a strong external position; the financial system is sound; and fiscal policy remains ros by oclombia structural fiscal balance rule. The authorities intend to undertake an ambitious infrastructure program to be executed through public-private partnerships.
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The medium-term outlook is favorable, but risks are tilted to the downside. The most important sources of risk are a decline in oil prices, a deterioration in global financial conditions, and volatility from the normalization of monetary policy in the U.
The current policy mix is broadly adequate. As the ongoing economic recovery takes hold, monetary and fiscal policies are expected to shift to a more neutral stance.
Colombia continues to rely on a flexible exchange rate to absorb external shocks. The authorities are also taking advantage of abundant foreign inflows, primarily foreign direct investment, to strengthen their international reserve buffer.
To this purpose, it will be important to: Robert Rennhack WHD joined the mission for the final discussions. Colombia has maintained a robust economic performance in recent years. A strong policy framework—anchored by an inflation-targeting regime, a flexible exchange rate, a structural fiscal balance rule, and effective financial supervision and regulation—has allowed the authorities to respond adequately to shocks and pursue effective demand management.
As a result, real GDP grew at a pace of 4 percent and annual inflation averaged 2. The authorities have continued to improve the policy framework in recent years, by including a fiscal sustainability principle in the constitution; introducing a structural fiscal balance rule; overhauling the oil and mining royalties system; and implementing a comprehensive tax reform that replaced payroll taxes with a corporate income tax. The economy has important and growing ties with the global economy.
Trade is rising, driven by commodity exports, and the economy is receiving substantial foreign direct investment. At the same time, Colombian firms are expanding abroad, primarily across Central and South America. The corporate sector borrows significant amounts from international banks, and the sovereign and a number of large firms have fluid access to the international capital markets.
The participation of nonresidents in the domestic equity and government bond markets is rising. President Juan Manuel Santos in office since is running for a second term.
The informw president will be inaugurated in August. On March 9,Colombia held congressional elections, in which the ruling coalition maintained a working majority in Congress, although the opposition increased its copombia. As of Marchagreement has been reached on two of the five topics under discussion. Exchange regime and economic data. Colombia has a floating exchange rate regime de jure and de facto. Data gosc is adequate for surveillance.
Real GDP growth rebounded strongly in the second half of After slowing down to colombua. On the supply side, output growth was broad-based, with strong gains in. Overall, real GDP growth in as a whole averaged 4. In turn, employment rose strongly, particularly in the formal sector of the economy, and unemployment declined to 9. Headline inflation fell to 1. Core inflation was also subdued at 2. A high supply of perishable foods thanks to favorable weather conditionsstable fuel prices, and one-off price reductions arising from the implementation of the tax reform contributed to the benign inflation behavior of last year.
As of Marchheadline inflation rose to 2. Twelve-month inflation expectations stood at 3 percent, close to the mid-point of the target range. The current account deficit remained broadly stable. The current account deficit amounted to 3.
The trade surplus narrowed as a result of lower exports, but was almost fully offset by a smaller deficit in the income account. The current account deficit continued to be financed by sizable surplus in the financial account 5 percent of GDPlargely driven by inward foreign direct investment 4. Portfolio inflows by nonresidents remained firm. Colombia maintained fluid access to the international capital markets, with Ecopetrol and the government issuing long-term bonds in the last quarter of and earlyrespectively.
Rosv total external debt remained broadly stable at 24 percent of GDP. Both NIIP and external debt are relatively low compared to peer countries and have remained so for several years. The exchange rate depreciated and government bond prices fell after the U. Federal Reserve tapering talk began in May The exchange rate depreciated by about 7 percent from May 22, to April 4,and foreign exchange market volatility iinforme Box 1. Yields on year domestic government debt initially rose by over basis points one of the largest increases among emerging marketsbut later recovered some of the losses as markets began to differentiate between countries with strong economies such as Colombia.
As of April 4,coombia on year domestic government debt had fallen to basis points over the pre-May 22 level. Spreads on external government debt also increased. Fiscal performance was in line with the fiscal rule. The combined public sector balance is estimated to have rsoc into a deficit of 1 percent of GDP, from a surplus of 0. Colokbia public sector debt is estimated at The banking system remained stable. Financial soundness indicators remained strong, with low and well-provisioned non-performing loans, strong profitability, and adequate liquidity.
Growth is projected to be driven by the private sector, supported by a steady increase in investment largely financed by higher domestic savings Box 2. Ininflation is projected to rise gradually, as the temporary factors that held it down in filter out. Given well-anchored inflation expectations, inflation is expected to remain well within the target range throughout the forecast inofrme. The current account deficit is projected to remain at ros 3 percent of GDP in the medium term, with the deficit in the income balance resulting from profit remittances colombis external interest payments continuing to exceed the trade surplus.
The deficit in the current account is expected to be more than financed by capital inflows, especially foreign direct investment.
The budget envisages a central government deficit of 2.
The deficit of the combined public sector is infirme to decline slightly to 0. Staff projects the deficit of the central government to decline to 1. As a result, the public sector debt would fall to 29 percent of GDP byfrom 35 percent at end Credit and assets under management by pension and other investment funds are poised to continue growing as a share of Rozc.
However, risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside.
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As a result of its important linkages with the rest of the world, the Colombian economy is significantly exposed to external risks. Furthermore, the risks associated with emerging markets and geopolitical tensions have increased since the last Article IV consultation. External risks include a sharp decline in commodity prices, especially oil; a deterioration in global financial conditions, including a surge in global financial market volatility related to the normalization of financial conditions in the U.
It could also reduce foreign direct investment since a significant share of it goes to the oil colombuawith a further negative collombia on the external accounts. Est Real GDP growth percent 4.
Colombian authorities; and Fund staff estimates. A simulation exercise developed by staff3 suggests that lending from international banks including those operating in Colombia to Colombian borrowers could decline by up to 6.
Shocks in the region could also be a source of negative spillovers to Colombia. Shocks in roac region could affect Colombia through trade and financial channels.
Colombian exports to Latin America account for about a quarter of total exports and the bulk of manufacturing exports.
The Latin American trade partners are in turn exposed to shocks to the global economy, in particular in the U. On the domestic front, the main risks relate informd high growth of house prices and consumer credit, as well as contingent liabilities from public-private partnerships PPPs.
On the fiscal front, one source of risk is that road concessions or other infrastructure projects lead to unforeseen public sector liabilities. This risk, however, is mitigated by a revamped legal framework for PPPs, approved in The authorities broadly agreed with the outlook and characterization of risks.
They also underlined the risks of a slowdown in China, with possible adverse implications for oil prices, and agreed with staff that shocks in the region could have a significant impact on Colombia. Likelihood Impact Policy Advice Side-effects from global financial conditions: High High Use the exchange rate and international reserves as shock absorber.
Protracted period of slower growth in emerging economies: High Medium Use monetary policy to support growth; speed up execution of capital projects in the public sector. Growth slowdown in China: Significant slowdown of growth in Continued buildup and eventual unwinding of excess capacity, eventually resulting in a sharp growth slowdown and large financial and fiscal losses medium-term.
Documentos e informes
Medium High Use the exchange rate and international reserves as shock absorber; tighten fiscal policy. Geopolitical risks financial flows, commodity prices, and supply chains: Medium Low Use the exchange rate and international reserves as shock absorber.
Sustained decline in commodity prices, triggered by deceleration of global demand and coming-on-stream of excess folombia medium-term Medium High Use the exchange rate and international reserves as shock absorber; tighten fiscal policy. Bond market stress from a reassessment in sovereign risk: